As SXSW begins today, I realized it’s actually been one year since awards season behemoth Everything, Everywhere All at Once made its debut in Austin, Texas. The science fiction film was hardly mentioned in conversations then and now it may be the first of its genre to win Best Picture at the 95th Oscars.
Most recently Everything won acting honors at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, showering Key Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis and Michelle Yeoh with “The Actor.” Then Kwan and Scheinert won Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards. The film also swept the Spirit Awards and Producers Guild Awards last weekend.
Not even Top Gun; Maverick’s Tom Cruise may be able to bring this scattered, frenetic piece of art from Daniel Kwan and Daniel Shienert down.
Here are my final predictions (in bold) for each and every category.
PICTURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“Women Talking”
Everything Everywhere All at Once has been the darling of awards season and it would take someone yanking it into another universe for it not to take home the gold.
DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (a.k.a. Daniels), “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Todd Field, “Tár”
Ruben Östlund, “Triangle of Sadness”
The Daniels took home the award at the Directors Guild Awards for Everything, Everywhere All at Once and should be the safe bet here, However, and this is a BIG HOWEVER, never rule Steven Spielberg out. The Fabelmans was my favorite film of the year and there may be a lot of voter sympathy for Spielberg telling his most personal story.
LEAD ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Andrea Riseborough, “To Leslie”
Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Yeoh has momentum with all of her recent wins. And Tár featured two-time Oscar-winning Cate Blanchett walking around in bespoke suits and being a predatory conductor. We would bet on Yeoh making gold history. But remember when we all thought Chadwick Boseman would win, but ultimately lost to Anthony Hopkins for The Father? Yeah, we still do. So bet on Yeoh, but Blanchett could upset.
Also, Yeoh made a post, which she has since taken down, talking about Blanchett’s two Oscars and not in the most complimentary way. That is a voter no no.
LEAD ACTOR
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
This would have been an easier prediction had Fraser not won at SAG Awards. But we’re still going with Butler’s almost flawless performance as “The King.”
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
While I would love to see a CBM win an award outside of technical, I think Curtis will continue her winning streak.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”
Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
This will cap a personal comeback story for Quan.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Rian Johnson
“Living,” Kazuo Ishiguro
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
“Women Talking,” Sarah Polley
Polley won last week at the Writers Guild Awards. And now, she can celebrate two weekends in a row.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans,” Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
“Tár,” Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness,” Ruben Östlund
The Daniels will also celebrate two weekends in a row.
ANIMATED FEATURE
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
“The Sea Beast”
“Turning Red”
Del Toro won Oscars as a director and producer of “The Shape of Water,” and now he’ll add a third for his bizarre take on a classic.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Fire of Love”
“A House Made of Splinters”
“Navalny”
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Argentina, 1985”
“Close”
“EO”
“The Quiet Girl”
All Quiet won’t win Best Picture, although it almost knocked The Fabelmans out of my top spot. It will get the consolation prize of Best International Feature.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” James Friend
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji
“Elvis,” Mandy Walker
“Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins
“Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister
COSTUME DESIGN
“Babylon,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth E. Carter
“Elvis,” Catherine Martin
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan
Pink suits, head-to-toe black leather, iconic white jumpsuits knock Black royalty and Panther costumes out of contention. Babylon could surprise.
REELated:
FILM EDITING
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers
“Tár,” Monika Willi
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
“The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
“Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
“The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
Elvis should win, The Whale could surprise.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” production design: Christian M. Goldbeck; set decoration: Ernestine Hipper
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” production design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; set decoration: Vanessa Cole
“Babylon,” production design: Florencia Martin; set decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Elvis,” production design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; set decoration: Bev Dunn
“The Fabelmans,” production design: Rick Carter; set decoration: Karen O’Hara
SCORE
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann
“Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell
“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux
“The Fabelmans,” John Williams
SONG
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman”; music and lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”; music and lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”; music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”; music by M.M. Keeravaaani; lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
SOUND
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prásil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
“The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
“Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
VISUAL EFFECTS
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
“Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
“Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
ANIMATED SHORT
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
“My Year of Dicks”
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“The Elephant Whisperers”
“Haulout”
“How Do You Measure a Year?”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Stranger at the Gate”
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
“An Irish Goodbye”
“Ivalu”
“Le Pupille”
“Night Ride”
“The Red Suitcase”
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The 95th Oscars will take place on March 12, 2023 at the Dolby Theater and will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. The event will be telecast live on ABC.
And then… onto Emmy season.
Colin Costello is the West Coast Editor of Reel 360. Contact him at colin@reel360.com or follow him on Twitter at @colinthewriter1
