TV’s biggest night, otherwise known as the Emmy Awards, arrives with a field that feels unusually stacked and weirdly balanced. Prestige dramas (Severance, The Last of Us, The White Lotus) are trading body blows with muscular newcomers (The Pitt, Paradise), while comedy splits between auteur polish (Hacks, The Studio) and the cultural juggernaut that is The Bear. Limited Series is a street fight, led by The Penguin and Netflix’s true-crime/anthology Heat.
The Creative Arts Emmys gave us the clearest roadmap yet. On the craft side, The Studio (Apple TV+) surged to front-runner status in comedy with a haul that outpaced the field; The Penguin (HBO | Max) dominated Limited/Anthology; Severance (Apple TV+) flexed in high-end drama crafts; and SNL50: The Anniversary Special had a golden coronation in variety. Those results, plus the bellwether Casting awards and where the cultural heat is right now, shape my picks below.
Below, Lexi’s picks; plus the likeliest spoilers.
Comedy
Outstanding Comedy Series
Will win: The Studio (Apple TV+) — irresistible to voters: glossy, insider-y, and stacked with star power.
Should win: The Studio (Apple TV+)
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Will win: Seth Rogen, The Studio — big comedic engine, plus series momentum.
Should win: Seth Rogen, The Studio
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Will win: Catherine O’Hara, The Studio — beloved legend + tailor-made role = Emmy catnip.
Should win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear — the season’s emotional center, calibrated to perfection.
Drama
Outstanding Drama Series
Will win: Severance (Apple TV+) — world-building expanded without losing precision; craft haul signals broad Academy love.
Should win: The Last of Us (HBO | Max) — ambitious, humane genre storytelling that stuck the landing.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Will win: Adam Scott, Severance — a meticulously modulated turn voters can’t ignore.
Should win: Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (Apple TV+) — a towering, lived-in antihero masterclass.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Will win: Britt Lower, Severance — the show’s existential ache in one riveting performance.
Should win: Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us — singular, bracing work that defined the season.
Limited or Anthology
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Will win: Adolescence (Netflix) — buzzy, urgent, and perfectly timed for the moment.
Should win: The Penguin (HBO | Max) — muscular filmmaking and star turns with staying power.
Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Will win: Colin Farrell, The Penguin — a full-body transformation that never sacrifices soul.
Dark horse: Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent (Apple TV+) — marquee name + courtroom sizzle.
Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Will win: Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex (FX on Hulu) — fearless, intimate, unforgettable.
Should win: Cristin Milioti, The Penguin — the stealth MVP with a beautifully layered performance.
Who do you think will win? Be sure to download our Emmy Ballot and fill it out!
Lexi Carson covers the buzziest campaigns, brand beefs, and streaming shake-ups. She’s known for her razor-sharp takes, obsession with 90s ad jingles, and a red bob that’s never once missed a deadline.
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