Emmy nomination morning is basically television’s annual group text meltdown. By the time the names are announced Wednesday, there will be locks, shocks, snubs, sentimental goodbyes, and at least one nomination that makes everyone ask, “Wait, did anyone actually watch that?”
This year, the field feels less predictable than usual. Several major shows are either wrapping up, returning after long breaks, or trying to hold onto heat after uneven seasons. Newer titles are pushing into categories once dominated by familiar favorites. And voters have to decide whether they want to reward cultural impact, critical love, final-season emotion or the comfort of names they already know.
That tension could make the 2026 Emmy nominations more interesting than expected. Hacks and The Pitt look strong. Beef should be a limited series force. Stranger Things could get one last victory lap. The Bear remains impossible to ignore, even as the “comedy” conversation continues to follow it around like a small kitchen fire.
So before the envelopes open and the outrage begins, here are our predictions for who gets in, who could surprise and who might be left refreshing their publicist’s phone.
Here’s what we’re watching when nominations arrive.
Comedy series
Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
Widow’s Bay
Possible surprise: The Comeback
Possible snub: The Bear
Hacks still feels like the safe bet. Emmy voters love the show, they love Jean Smart, and they love a series that lets them feel both sophisticated and emotionally moisturized. Abbott Elementary remains one of broadcast television’s great survivors, while Shrinking and Only Murders in the Building have the kind of ensemble affection that tends to travel well with voters.
The big question is The Bear. It remains one of television’s most admired shows, but the conversation around it has shifted from “Is this a comedy?” to “Are we still doing this?” Even when the show frustrates, it still has craft, performance and cultural weight on its side. That should be enough for a nomination. Barely.
Comedy actress
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Jean Smart, Hacks
Possible surprise: Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Possible snub: Ayo Edebiri
Jean Smart is the frontrunner until someone physically removes the Emmy from the building. Still, this could be a more interesting category than usual. Lisa Kudrow has the comeback narrative, Elle Fanning has shiny-new-show energy, and Quinta Brunson remains one of TV’s most reliable comic anchors.
Ayo Edebiri should be safe, but if voters are cooling on The Bear, this is where we may feel it first.
Comedy actor
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Steve Carell, The Four Seasons
Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Possible surprise: D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Reservation Dogs
Possible snub: Jeremy Allen White
Martin Short has somehow never won an acting Emmy, which feels like a clerical error the Academy should fix before someone checks the warranty. Jason Segel continues to make Shrinking work by playing grief with warmth instead of syrup. Matthew Rhys could be the category’s most interesting entry if voters embrace Widow’s Bay.
Jeremy Allen White is still Jeremy Allen White, but if The Bear underperforms, this category could become the first sign of slippage.
Comedy supporting actress
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Possible surprise: Ashley Padilla, Saturday Night Live
Possible snub: Meryl Streep
This is a stacked category, and yes, we have reached the point where Meryl Streep could be the possible snub. Television is rude now.
Hannah Einbinder has the clearest momentum if voters want to reward Hacks beyond Smart. Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph remain Abbott favorites, while Jessica Williams has been one of Shrinking’s most valuable weapons. Liza Colón-Zayas should be in, especially after reminding everyone that The Bear’s supporting bench is still one of the best on television.
Comedy supporting actor
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Ebon Moss-Bacharach, The Bear
Nick Offerman, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Possible surprise: Stephen Root, Widow’s Bay
Possible snub: Bowen Yang
Can we just give Harrison Ford an Emmy already and let America heal?
Ford has been terrific on Shrinking, not in a “movie star slumming it on television” way, but in a fully present, funny, cranky, beautifully lived-in performance. Ebon Moss-Bacharach remains a likely nominee, though The Bear fatigue could make his path slightly less automatic than it once was.
Drama series
The Diplomat
Euphoria
The Gilded Age
Paradise
The Pitt
Pluribus
Slow Horses
Stranger Things
Possible surprise: A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Possible snub: Euphoria
The Pitt feels like the one to beat. It has urgency, ensemble strength and the kind of old-school medical drama DNA Emmy voters understand immediately. Pluribus could be the big newcomer if voters want something stranger and more ambitious, while Slow Horses has quietly become one of the most respected shows on television.
Stranger Things is the sentimental wildcard. Final seasons can bring voters back into the fold, especially for a series that helped define the streaming era. Euphoria is trickier. Zendaya may be safe, but the show itself has become a magnet for “what exactly are we doing here?” discourse.
Drama actress
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Zendaya, Euphoria
Possible surprise: Chase Infiniti, The Testaments
Possible snub: Kathy Bates
Zendaya has won this category twice, and even people who complain about Euphoria tend to agree she remains extraordinary in it. But this year feels like a real opportunity for Rhea Seehorn, whose entire career has become one long Emmy apology letter that voters keep forgetting to mail.
Keri Russell is also right there. If The Diplomat overperforms, she could become the nominee everyone suddenly realizes has been waiting forever.
Drama actor
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Walton Goggins, Fallout
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Mark Ruffalo, Task
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Possible surprise: Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors
Possible snub: Walton Goggins
Noah Wyle feels locked. The Pitt gave him the kind of role Emmy voters understand: moral exhaustion, institutional pressure, quiet heroism and enough emotional restraint to make every small crack feel massive.
Mark Ruffalo is also exactly the kind of actor who can walk into a limited or dramatic field and immediately become dangerous. Gary Oldman should return for Slow Horses, while Sterling K. Brown remains one of television’s most trusted dramatic engines.
Drama supporting actress
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt
Karolina Wydra, Pluribus
Carrie Preston, Elsbeth
Possible surprise: Fiona Dourif, The Pitt
Possible snub: Carrie Preston
The Pitt could dominate here. That ensemble is deep, and voters love a show where everyone feels like they are carrying one corner of the building. Katherine LaNasa feels especially strong, while Taylor Dearden and Sepideh Moafi could ride the show’s overall momentum.
Allison Janney is Allison Janney, which means she starts with a built-in Emmy advantage. She could read a takeout menu under fluorescent lights and somehow still feel nomination-worthy.
Drama supporting actor
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
James Marsden, Paradise
Tom Pelphrey, Task
Patrick Ball, The Pitt
Carlos Manuel Vesga, Pluribus
Possible surprise: Gerran Howell, The Pitt
Possible snub: Carlos Manuel Vesga
This category feels wide open, which usually means voters will split between familiar names and whatever show they loved most overall. The Pitt should land multiple performers here if the show hits as expected. Billy Crudup remains an Emmy favorite, while Jack Lowden has built real goodwill for Slow Horses.
The wild card is Pluribus. If voters respond to its stranger rhythms, it could do very well. If they admire it from a distance, some of the supporting performances may get left out.
REELated:
Meet the 14 houseguests entering The Big Brother House
Limited series
All Her Fault
Beef
Black Rabbit
DTF St. Louis
Half Man
Love Story
Possible surprise: The Beast in Me
Possible snub: Half Man
Limited series feels messier than usual, and not always in a fun way. Beef may have the cleanest path because voters already know the brand and understand the anthology shape. Love Story sparked conversation, though not all of it was flattering. Still, conversation is currency, and the Emmys have never been allergic to prestige mess.
DTF St. Louis could be the one that sneaks up on people. If voters connected with its suburban loneliness and strange comic ache, it could overperform.
Limited series / TV movie actress
Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
Carey Mulligan, Beef
Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story
Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
Possible surprise: Kerry Washington, Imperfect Women
Possible snub: Sally Field
Sarah Snook remains a formidable Emmy presence, and Carey Mulligan has the kind of prestige-film aura that travels well into television. Claire Danes is never to be ignored in this category, mostly because Emmy voters have muscle memory.
But if Love Story lands with voters, Sarah Pidgeon could be one of the morning’s stronger showings.
Limited series / TV movie actor
Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit
Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Oscar Isaac, Beef
Paul Anthony Kelly, Love Story
Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me
Possible surprise: Jamie Bell, Half Man
Possible snub: Jason Bateman
Oscar Isaac feels like the safe bet for a nomination, while Matthew Rhys could double up if voters also embrace him in comedy. Charlie Hunnam has the transformation factor, which voters often reward even when the surrounding project is divisive.
The question is whether Half Man was too difficult, too harsh, or just too much for voters to fully embrace. If not, Jamie Bell could crash the category.
Limited series / TV movie supporting actress
Linda Cardellini, DTF St. Louis
Grace Gummer, Love Story
Laurie Metcalf, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Cailee Spaeny, Beef
Naomi Watts, Love Story
Yuh-Jung Youn, Beef
Possible surprise: Constance Zimmer, Love Story
Possible snub: Linda Cardellini
This might be where the limited series field gets most interesting. Cailee Spaeny could be one of Beef’s strongest acting plays, while Yuh-Jung Youn is exactly the kind of performer voters love recognizing. Naomi Watts and Grace Gummer could ride Love Story’s visibility, whether people loved the show or watched it while yelling at the screen.
Linda Cardellini feels like the critic’s pick. Which, as we know, is both a compliment and a warning.
Limited series / TV movie supporting actor
Jonathan Banks, The Beast in Me
Jason Bateman, DTF St. Louis
David Harbour, DTF St. Louis
Richard Gadd, Half Man
Charles Melton, Beef
Alessandro Nivola, Love Story
Possible surprise: Troy Kotsur, Black Rabbit
Possible snub: Jonathan Banks
Charles Melton feels like the standout here if Beef performs as expected. David Harbour and Jason Bateman could both benefit from DTF St. Louis finding voters who appreciated its weird, wounded male friendship energy.
Richard Gadd is the question mark. Half Man was not easy television, but the Emmys sometimes reward work that makes viewers uncomfortable as long as enough people actually watched it. That second part is always the problem.
Final thoughts
The safest prediction is that Hacks, The Pitt and Beef will have a good morning.
The more interesting question is where voters decide to get adventurous. Do they make room for Widow’s Bay? Do they bring Stranger Things back for one final lap? Do they reward Pluribus because it feels like the kind of ambitious television the Emmys say they want to honor? Or do they retreat to familiar names, familiar shows and the soothing certainty of Jean Smart?
Either way, tomorrow morning should give us the usual Emmy cocktail: joy, confusion, outrage and at least three nominations that make everyone say, “Wait, that was eligible?”
Geek out.
The Geek is a working screenwriter, director and screenwriting instructor.
