We predict the 2020 SAG Award Winners

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With last night’s Producer Guild Awards, awards season is now underway in Hollywood. Every weekend, everyone in the industry, from animators to VFX folks, will be attending dinners and after parties somewhere in Hollywood and Beverly Hills. And it will all culminate on February 9th at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood with the Oscars. The season continues tonight with the 2020 SAG Awards.

Around 160,000 members from across the country vote for the Screen Actor Guild Awards, and it serves as a good barometer for who will win in the Best Acting categories at the Oscars. According to The New York Post, the SAG and Oscar best actor winners have overlapped in 90 percent of cases over the past 10 years. In the best actress category, that’s a still-impressive 80 percent. 

So if you don’t have a team in the NFC or AFC Championship games today, you might want to tune into the SAG Awards on TBS tonight at 5 PM, PST.

Our SAG Predictions

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Ken Miles – “FORD v FERRARI”
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Rick Dalton — “ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD”
ADAM DRIVER / Charlie Barber – “MARRIAGE STORY” TARON EGERTON / Elton John – “ROCKETMAN”
JOAQUIN PHOENIX / Arthur Fleck – “JOKER”

Analysis: After receiving 11 Oscar nominations, Joker seems to be the film to beat this Awards season. Much of that is due to Joaquin Phoenix’s performance as Arthur Fleck. Phoenix was so good, he elevated what we thought was a fairly ordinary script. It also doesn’t hurt that he took home the Golden Globe. The expectation here is that he will have to make room on his fireplace mantle.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Harriet/Minty – “HARRIET”
SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Nicole Barber – “MARRIAGE STORY”
LUPITA NYONG’O / Adelaide Wilson/Red – “US”
CHARLIZE THERON / Megyn Kelly – “BOMBSHELL”
RENÉE ZELLWEGER / Judy Garland – “JUDY”

Analysis: With the Oscars once again ignoring African Americans in major acting categories, except for Cynthia Erivo’s powerful performance as Harriet Tubman, expect the much more diverse SAG to send a message. Renée Zellweger is the overall favorite to win for her performance in Judy, but she has remained fairly low-key. Plus, Hollywood can’t resist the Holocaust or a slave movie. Go with Cynthia.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JAMIE FOXX / Walter McMillian – “JUST MERCY”
TOM HANKS / Fred Rogers – “A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD”
AL PACINO / Jimmy Hoffa – “THE IRISHMAN”
JOE PESCI / Russell Bufalino – “THE IRISHMAN”
BRAD PITT / Cliff Booth – “ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

Analysis: Tom Hanks received his first Oscar nomination in 20 years for his portrayal of Fred Rogers. That is fairly hard to believe, but true. And who doesn’t like Hanks? He could pull this out. Al Pacino and Brad Joe Pesci will divide audiences over their performances in The Irishman. But the film has been losing steam. Look for Pitt to take home this SAG and his first Oscar.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
LAURA DERN / Nora Fanshaw – “MARRIAGE STORY”
SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Rosie – “JOJO RABBIT
NICOLE KIDMAN / Gretchen Carlson – “BOMBSHELL”
JENNIFER LOPEZ / Ramona – “HUSTLERS”
MARGOT ROBBIE / Kayla Pospisil – “BOMBSHELL”

Analysis: Laura Dern is the obvious choice here, but she will most likely take home an Oscar. J.Lo has had a crappy couple of weeks where she lost the Golden Globe to Dern and then was not nominated for an Oscar. This is her only shot at a win this season and we believe she may just get it.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

BOMBSHELL
CONNIE BRITTON / Beth Ailes
ALLISON JANNEY / Susan Estrich
NICOLE KIDMAN / Gretchen Carlson
JOHN LITHGOW / Roger Ailes
MALCOLM McDOWELL / Rupert Murdoch
KATE McKINNON / Jess Carr
MARGOT ROBBIE / Kayla Pospisil
CHARLIZE THERON / Megyn Kelly

THE IRISHMAN
BOBBY CANNAVALE / Skinny Razor
ROBERT DE NIRO / Frank Sheeran
STEPHEN GRAHAM / Anthony “Tony Pro” Provenzano
HARVEY KEITEL / Angelo Bruno
AL PACINO / Jimmy Hoffa
ANNA PAQUIN / Older Peggy Sheeran
JOE PESCI / Russell Bufalino
RAY ROMANO / Bill Bufalino
 
JOJO RABBIT
ALFIE ALLEN / Finkel
ROMAN GRIFFIN DAVIS / Jojo
SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Rosie
THOMASIN McKENZIE / Elsa
STEPHEN MERCHANT / Deertz
SAM ROCKWELL / Capt. Klenzendorf
TAIKA WAITITI / Adolf
REBEL WILSON / Fraulein Rahm

ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
AUSTIN BUTLER / Tex
JULIA BUTTERS / Trudi
BRUCE DERN / George Spahn
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Rick Dalton
DAKOTA FANNING / Squeaky Fromme
EMILE HIRSCH / Jay Sebring
DAMIAN LEWIS / Steve McQueen
MIKE MOH / Bruce Lee
TIMOTHY OLYPHANT / James Stacy
AL PACINO / Marvin Schwarz
LUKE PERRY / Wayne Maunder
BRAD PITT / Cliff Booth
MARGARET QUALLEY / Pussycat
MARGOT ROBBIE / Sharon Tate

PARASITE
HYAE JIN CHANG / Chung Sook
YEO JEONG CHO / Yeon Kyo
WOO SHIK CHOI / Ki Woo
HYEON JUN JUNG / Da Song
ZISO JUNG / Da Hye
JUNG EUN LEE / Moon Gwang
SUN KYUN LEE / Dong Ik
MYUNG HOON PARK / Geun Se
SO DAM PARK / Ki Jung
KANG HO SONG / Ki Taek

Analysis: This category is a real toss-up. There isn’t a dog in the bunch. You have the starry cast of Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. There’s the “me-too” movement represented in Bombshell. And again, there’ Scorsese’s The Irishman. That said, there is the Hollywood darling of Parasite, which is doing for Korean culture what Crazy Rich Asians did for Chinese. We expect Parasite to win by a nose.

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“AVENGERS: ENDGAME”
 “FORD v FERRARI”
“THE IRISHMAN”
“JOKER”
“ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD”

Analysis: This may be real wishful thinking here for Avengers: Endgame to win. Joker didn’t have a lot of stunt work in it until the very end. Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood did have the great fight between Brad Pitt’s stunt man Cliff Booth and Bruce Lee, played by Mike Moh. Hollywood voters may go for Once, because it is a love letter to stuntmen and movie -making.

ALSO READ: ‘Joker’ gets 11, Greta snubbed & other Oscar noms

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
MAHERSHALA ALI / Wayne Hays – “TRUE DETECTIVE”
RUSSELL CROWE / Roger Ailes – “THE LOUDEST VOICE”
JARED HARRIS / Valery Legasov – “CHERNOBYL”
JHARREL JEROME / Korey Wise – “WHEN THEY SEE US”
SAM ROCKWELL / Bob Fosse – “FOSSE/VERDON”

Analysis: While you never want to really bet against Mahershala Ali, this edition of True Detective has not won awards. Look for Jharrel Jerome, who was not nominated for a Golden Globe, but did win an Emmy to take the SAG.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Dee Dee Blanchard – “THE ACT”
TONI COLLETTE / Det. Grace Rasmussen – “UNBELIEVABLE”
JOEY KING / Gypsy Rose Blanchard – “THE ACT”
EMILY WATSON / Ulana Khomyuk – “CHERNOBYL”
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Gwen Verdon – “FOSSE/VERDON”

Analysis: No real analyzing needed here. Michelle Williams will win easily for the excellent Fosse/Verdon.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US”
STEVE CARELL / Mitch Kessler – “THE MORNING SHOW”
BILLY CRUDUP / Corey Ellison – “THE MORNING SHOW”
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES”
DAVID HARBOUR / Jim Hopper – “STRANGER THINGS”

Analysis: Carell and Crudup cancel each other out. Sterling K. Brown has won before and This is Us is just not that hot now. Stranger Things will go for another season, giving the previously nominate Harbour a shot. Previously nominated Dinklage finally takes home the award with Game of Thrones over.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
JENNIFER ANISTON / Alex Levy – “THE MORNING SHOW”
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Princess Margaret – “THE CROWN”
OLIVIA COLMAN / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN”
JODIE COMER /Villanelle – “KILLING EVE”
ELISABETH MOSS / Offred/June – “THE HANDMAID’S TALE”

Analysis: Olivia Colman hasn’t taken home a SAG award for The Crown, but her Queen has. Claire Foy portrayed the younger version of Queen Elizabeth for the two previous seasons. Tonight, the Queen rules.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALAN ARKIN / Norman Newlander – “THE KOMINSKY METHOD”
MICHAEL DOUGLAS / Sandy Kominsky – “THE KOMINSKY METHOD”
BILL HADER / Barry – “BARRY”
ANDREW SCOTT / The Priest – “FLEABAG”
TONY SHALHOUB / Abe Weissman – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL”

Analysis: Mrs. Maisel has had her time. Arkin and Douglas cancel each other out. Bill Hader was nominated last year but lost to co-star Henry Winkler. Now it’s time for Fleabag. Look for hot priest Andrew Scott to win his first.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
CHRISTINA APPLEGATE / Jen Harding – “DEAD TO ME”
ALEX BORSTEIN / Susie Myerson – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL”
RACHEL BROSNAHAN / Midge Maisel – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL”
CATHERINE O’HARA / Moira Rose – “SCHITT’S CREEK”
PHOEBE WALLER-BRIDGE / Fleabag – “FLEABAG”

Analysis: She won the Emmy. She won the Golden Globe. Phoebe Waller-Bridge makes it a trifecta as she wins for Fleabag.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

BIG LITTLE LIES
IAIN ARMITAGE / Ziggy Chapman
DARBY CAMP / Chloe Mackenzie
CAMERON CROVETTI / Josh Wright
NICHOLAS CROVETTI / Max Wright
LAURA DERN / Renata Klein
MARTIN DONOVAN / Martin Howard
MERRIN DUNGEY / Det. Adrienne Quinlan
CRYSTAL FOX / Elizabeth Howard
IVY GEORGE / Amabella Klein
NICOLE KIDMAN / Celeste Wright
ZOË KRAVITZ / Bonnie Carlson
KATHRYN NEWTON / Abigail Carlson
JEFFREY NORDLING / Gordon Klein
DENIS O’HARE / Ira Farber
ADAM SCOTT / Ed Mackenzie
ALEXANDER SKARSGÅRD / Perry Wright
DOUGLAS SMITH / Corey Brockfield
MERYL STREEP / Mary Louise Wright
JAMES TUPPER / Nathan Carlson
ROBIN WEIGERT / Dr. Amanda Reisman
REESE WITHERSPOON / Madeline Mackenzie
SHAILENE WOODLEY / Jane Chapman

THE CROWN
MARION BAILEY / Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother
HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Princess Margaret
OLIVIA COLMAN / Queen Elizabeth II
CHARLES DANCE / Lord Mountbatten
BEN DANIELS / Lord Snowdon
ERIN DOHERTY / Princess Anne
CHARLES EDWARDS / Martin Charteris
TOBIAS MENZIES / Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh
JOSH O’CONNOR / Prince Charles
SAM PHILLIPS / Equerry
DAVID RINTOUL / Michael Adeane
JASON WATKINS / Harold Wilson

GAME OF THRONES
ALFIE ALLEN / Theon Greyjoy
PILOU ASBÆK / Euron Greyjoy
JACOB ANDERSON / Grey Worm
JOHN BRADLEY / Samwell Tarly
GWENDOLINE CHRISTIE / Brienne of Tarth
EMILIA CLARKE / Daenerys Targaryen
NIKOLAJ COSTER-WALDAU / Jaime Lannister
BEN CROMPTON / Dolorous Edd
LIAM CUNNINGHAM / Davos Seaworth
JOE DEMPSIE / Gendry
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister
RICHARD DORMER / Beric Dondarrion
NATHALIE EMMANUEL / Missandei
JEROME FLYNN / Bronn
IAIN GLEN / Jorah Mormont
KIT HARINGTON / Jon Snow
LENA HEADEY / Cersei Lannister
ISAAC HEMPSTEAD WRIGHT / Bran Stark
CONLETH HILL / Varys
KRISTOFER HIVJU / Tormund Giantsbane
RORY McCANN / The Hound
HANNAH MURRAY / Gilly
STAZ NAIR / Qhono
DANIEL PORTMAN / Podrick Payne
BELLA RAMSEY / Lyanna Mormont
RICHARD RYCROFT / Maester Wolkan
SOPHIE TURNER / Sansa Stark
RUPERT VANSITTART / Yohn Royce
MAISIE WILLIAMS / Arya Stark

THE HANDMAID’S TALE
ALEXIS BLEDEL / Emily
MADELINE BREWER / Janine
AMANDA BRUGEL / Rita
ANN DOWD / Aunt Lydia
O-T FAGBENLE / Luke
JOSEPH FIENNES / Commander Waterford
KRISTEN GUTOSKIE / Martha Beth
NINA KIRI / Alam/Ofrobert
ASHLEIGH LaTHROP / Ofmatthew
ELISABETH MOSS / Offred/June
YVONNE STRAHOVSKI / Serena Joy
BAHIA WATSON / Oferic
BRADLEY WHITFORD / Commander Lawrence
SAMIRA WILEY / Moira

STRANGER THINGS
MILLIE BOBBY BROWN / Eleven
CARA BUONO / Karen Wheeler
JAKE BUSEY / Bruce
NATALIA DYER / Nancy Wheeler
CARY ELWES / Mayor Larry Kline
PRIAH FERGUSON / Erica Sinclair
BRETT GELMAN / Murray
DAVID HARBOUR / Jim Hopper
MAYA HAWKE / Robin Buckley
CHARLIE HEATON / Jonathan Byers
ANDREY IVCHENKO / Grigori
JOE KEERY / Steve Harrington
GATEN MATARAZZO / Dustin Henderson
CALEB McLAUGHLIN / Lucas Sinclair
DACRE MONTGOMERY / Billy Hargrove
MICHAEL PARK / Tom Holloway
FRANCESCA REALE / Heather Holloway
WINONA RYDER / Joyce Byers
NOAH SCHNAPP / Will Byers
SADIE SINK / Max Mayfield
FINN WOLFHARD / Mike Wheeler

Analysis: Game of Thrones has been nominated before and could win a sympathy vote, but the final season was extremely divisive. Stranger Things is back in the running. Handmaid’s Tale and Big Little Lies are natural choices as well. But The Crown is everyone’s new favorite series and look for that love to be shown here.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

BARRY
NIKITA BOGOLYUBOV / Mayrbek
DARRELL BRITT-GIBSON / Jermaine
D’ARCY CARDEN / Natalie
ANDY CAREY / Eric
ANTHONY CARRIGAN / NoHo Hank
TROY CAYLAK / Akhmal
RIGHTOR DOYLE / Nick
PATRICIA FA’ASUA / Esther
ALEJANDRO FURTH / Antonio
SARAH GOLDBERG / Sally
NICK GRACER / Yandar
BILL HADER / Barry
KIRBY HOWELL-BAPTISTE / Sasha
MICHAEL IRBY / Cristobal Sifuentes
JOHN PIRRUCCELLO / Det. John Loach
STEPHEN ROOT / Monroe Fuchs
HENRY WINKLER / Gene Cousineau

FLEABAG
SIAN CLIFFORD / Claire
OLIVIA COLMAN / Godmother
BRETT GELMAN / Martin
BILL PATERSON / Dad
ANDREW SCOTT / The Priest
PHOEBE WALLER-BRIDGE / Fleabag

THE KOMINSKY METHOD
JENNA LYNG ADAMS / Darshani
ALAN ARKIN / Norman Newlander
SARAH BAKER / Mindy Kominsky
CASEY THOMAS BROWN / Lane
MICHAEL DOUGLAS / Sandy Kominsky
LISA EDELSTEIN / Phoebe
PAUL REISER / Martin
GRAHAM ROGERS / Jude
JANE SEYMOUR / Madelyn
MELISSA TANG / Margaret
NANCY TRAVIS / Lisa

THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL
CAROLINE AARON / Shirley Maisel
ALEX BORSTEIN / Susie Myerson
RACHEL BROSNAHAN / Midge Maisel
MARIN HINKLE / Rose Weissman
STEPHANIE HSU / Mei
JOEL JOHNSTONE / Archie Cleary
JANE LYNCH / Sophie Lennon
LEROY McCLAIN / Shy Baldwin
KEVIN POLLAK / Moishe Maisel
TONY SHALHOUB / Abe Weissman
MATILDA SZYDAGIS / Zelda
BRIAN TARANTINA / Jackie
MICHAEL ZEGEN / Joel Maisel

SCHITT’S CREEK
CHRIS ELLIOTT / Roland Schitt
EMILY HAMPSHIRE / Stevie Budd
DANIEL LEVY / David Rose
EUGENE LEVY / Johnny Rose
SARAH LEVY / Twyla Sands
DUSTIN MILLIGAN / Ted Mullens
ANNIE MURPHY / Alexis Rose
CATHERINE O’HARA / Moira Rose
NOAH REID / Patrick Brewer
JENNIFER ROBERTSON / Jocelyn Schitt
KAREN ROBINSON / Ronnie Lee

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
GAME OF THRONES
GLOW
STRANGER THINGS
THE WALKING DEAD
WATCHMEN

The Screen Actors Guild Awards airs live on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on TBS and TNT.

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