Predictions are like… you know that back area that all people possess where relief meets freedom on the daily? … Everyone has one. We predict how our sports teams will do. Who will win the elections? If it will rain or not. And we predict the Academy Award – Oscar to his friends – winners.
It is no different as we approach the 96th Academy Awards in the Lord’s year of 2024. We have predictions. Lots of them. But after tirelessly covering awards show after awards show for the last three months, there is really nothing earth-shattering here.
Sorry.
Let’s be real, most of the awards have been decided already. Yes, there could be a surprise or two – there usually is – however after three months of awards coverage, we feel fairly confident.
One thing we can safely predict – The Bear will not win an Oscar. Only because it is on TV. Jeremy Allen-White will have to wait a little longer to become an EGOT.
The summer may have started off as “Barbenheimer,” but in Awards Season, it is all about Christopher Nolan’s opus, Oppenheimer. The list of Best Picture Contenders is formidable when you consider the other nominees like Barbie, Poor Things, The Holdovers, and American Fiction. But the winner will be that ‘ol bombmaker.
Despite Oscar’s sometimes capricious nature, those 9,797 eligible voters will award Cillian Murphy and Lily Gladstone gold statuettes.
The real intrigue will be among the craft categories including cinematography, editing, sound and costume design.
Despite Oppenheimer dominating discussions and Barbie trailing as a potential runner-up in several categories, the history of the Oscars is replete with unexpected twists. Recent years have witnessed unconventional choices like All Quiet on the Western Front and Olivia Colman’s win over Glenn Close, highlighting the Academy’s capricious nature.
So, here we go. Here are our predictions for Sunday:
Best Picture
Will Win: “Oppenheimer”
Should Win: “American Fiction”
REEL Insight: Look Nolan’s film is the film of the year. But it was long. Really long. An hour too long. Okay, enough with the long. But Oppenheimer was long. American Fiction was delightful in every way possible from the screenplay to Jeffrey Wright’s endearing performance. And it was way shorter and less indulgent than Oppenheimer.
- “Anatomy of a Fall”
- “Barbie”
- “The Holdovers”
- “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- “Maestro”
- “Past Lives”
- “Poor Things”
- “The Zone of Interest”
Best Actress
Will Win: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Should Win: Lily Gladstone
REEL Insight: If you had asked me a month ago who would win Best Actress, Emma Stone would have easily rolled off my tongue for Poor Things. Her portrayal of a Frankenstein-like woman growing into her own was enchanting. However, Gladstone’s triumph at the SAG Awards for the role of a Native American woman in Killers of the Flower Moon somewhat ends The Battle of the Stones (Gladstone vs. Emma Stone)
Other nominees:
- Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
- Annette Bening, “Nyad”
- Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Best Actor
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Should Win: Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
REEL Insight: There were so many remarkable performances this year in the Actor Category. Paul Giamatti shone brilliantly in The Holdovers, displaying Oscar-worthy talent. Colman Domingo’s portrayal of a man concealing his sexual orientation to achieve something historic in Rustin was utterly captivating. Additionally, Jeffrey Wright’s performance in American Fiction left an indelible mark on the screen, showcasing his immense talent and dedication to the craft.
Other nominees:
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Best Director
Will Win: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
REEL Insight: It’s indeed intriguing to consider esteemed names like Martin Scorsese, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Jonathan Glazer and dismiss their chances outright. However, the sentiment seems to suggest that Christopher Nolan is already the frontrunner or has a significant advantage, despite the presence of such notable contenders.
- Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
- Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
- Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.
REEL Insight: Throughout the award season, Downey Jr. has demonstrated his dramatic prowess, earning acclaim for his performances and reminding audiences of his range as an actor. He ain’t just Tony Stark. His ability to transition seamlessly from blockbuster franchises to more nuanced roles underscores his enduring relevance in the film industry.
Other nominees:
- Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
- Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
- Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
REEL Insight: It is indeed a rare feat for a performer to sweep major awards like the Golden Globe, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, and Independent Spirit awards for a single role. However, Randolph’s extraordinary achievement underscores the depth of talent and emotional resonance that she brought to her portrayal of a school cook grappling with tragedy.
Other nominees:
- Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
- Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
- America Ferrera, “Barbie”
- Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Best International Film
Will Win: “The Zone of Interest”
Should Win: “The Zone of Interest”
REEL Insight: Rather than centering solely on the victims or the perpetrators, the film delves into the moral complexities of those who turned a blind eye to the horrors of the Holocaust. It sheds light on the moral culpability of individuals who choose to ignore the suffering of others, highlighting the profound moral and ethical questions raised by such indifference.
Other nominees:
- “Io Capitano”
- “Perfect Days”
- “Society of the Snow”
- “The Teachers’ Lounge”
Best Song
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Should Win: “What Was I Made For?”
Reel Insight: In a year where the Best Song nominees may not stand out as particularly strong, “What Was I Made For?” emerges as the sole contender to have truly resonated culturally. Consequently, it appears poised to earn Billie a second Oscar win.
Other nominees:
- “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot,” music and lyrics by Diane Warren
- “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
- “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony,” music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon,” music and lyrics by Scott George
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Should Win: “The Holdovers”
REEL Insight: The seamless blend of humor and depth in “The Holdovers” makes it a compelling and memorable piece of storytelling. Its ability to evoke laughter while also delving into deeper emotional layers speaks to the skill and talent of its writers. As a result, the script resonates with readers and viewers alike, leaving a lasting impression long after the final page is turned or the credits roll.
Other nominees:
- “The Holdovers”
- “Maestro”
- “May December”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: “American Fiction”
Should Win: “American Fiction
REEL Insight: Barbie may have a slight edge, but Cord Jefferson’s satirical script has garnered admiration from voters, while Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s take on the Mattel movie seems to have lost favor.
Other nominees:
- “Oppenheimer”
- “Poor Things”
- “The Zone of Interest”
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Should Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
REEL Insight: While it would be gratifying to witness Hayao Miyazaki win for what could be his final film, The Boy and the Heron, Across the Spider-Verse THWAPS it as it is undeniably the superior movie.
Other nominees:
- “The Boy and the Heron”
- “Elemental”
- “Nimona”
- “Robot Dreams”
REELated:
Other Categories
Here’s a breakdown of the predictions and spoilers for several categories at the upcoming Oscars:
Best Animated Short:
- Prediction: “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
- Spoiler: “Letter to a Pig”
Best Cinematography:
- Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
- Spoiler: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Best Costume Design:
- Prediction: “Poor Things”
- Spoiler: “Barbie”
Best Documentary Feature:
- Prediction: “20 Days at Mariupol”
- Spoiler: “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
Best Documentary Short:
- Prediction: “The ABCs of Book Banning”
- Spoiler: “The Last Repair Shop”
Best Editing:
- Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
- Spoiler: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Best International Feature Film:
- Prediction: “The Zone of Interest”
- Spoiler: “Society of the Snow”
Best Live Action Short:
- Prediction: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
- Spoiler: “Invincible”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
- Prediction: “Maestro”
- Spoiler: “Poor Things”
Best Production Design:
- Prediction: “Barbie”
- Spoiler: “Poor Things”
Best Original Score:
- Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
- Spoiler: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Best Sound:
- Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
- Spoiler: “The Zone of Interest”
Best Visual Effects:
- Prediction: “Godzilla Minus One”
- Spoiler: “The Creator”
As the countdown to Oscar night unfolds, the stage is set for an evening of anticipation, surprises, and celebration. While some favorites may dominate, the unpredictable nature of the Academy ensures that the final outcome remains shrouded in suspense until the envelopes are opened at the Dolby Theatre. Stay tuned for a night of glamour and cinematic excellence at the 96th Annual Academy Awards.
The 96th Academy Awards will air on ABC, this Sunday March 10 at 7 PM EST/ 6 PM CST/ 4 PST.
For more Academy Awards coverage, click here.
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