We are only hours away from Hollywood royalty parading into the Dolby Theater in Hollywood to celebrate the 92nd Academy Awards. The 2019 Oscars garnered 29.6 million viewers and a 7.7 rating among the key demographic of adults age 18 to 49, which represented an uptick from the all-time low ratings in 2018. There was also a 3.1 million viewer increase between the 90th and 91st Academy Awards, breaking a four-year streak of declining ratings.
We shall see if having no host, and hopefully a speedier show, will help continue a ratings upswing. Reel 360’s Oscar prognosticators have put their combined brain power and have come up with the following predictions. Here are sure bets:
The will be no female director winners. Well, of course there aren’t, as once again no female directors were nominated despite rave reviews for such films as The Farewell (which just won the Spirit Award for Best Feature), Little Women, Booksmart (which just won the Spirit Award for Best First Feature).
No African American, Asian or Latino actors will win in the major acting categories except for possibly Cynthia Erivo for Harriet. However, she will not win.
That said, there are some fantastic films nominated, but the battle should be between Parasite, 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Marriage Story for tonight’s Academy Awards.
ALSO READ: 2020 Film Independent Spirit Award winners announced
Here are our official Academy Awards predictions in bold:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
- ANTONIO BANDERAS Pain and Glory
- LEONARDO DICAPRIO Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
- ADAM DRIVER Marriage Story
- JOAQUIN PHOENIX Joker (Joaquin has won every other award, no reason to think it won’t continue here).
- JONATHAN PRYCE The Two Popes
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- TOM HANKS A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- ANTHONY HOPKINS The Two Popes
- AL PACINO The Irishman
- JOE PESCI The Irishman
- BRAD PITT Once upon a Time…in Hollywood (Pitt picks up his first Oscar)
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
- CYNTHIA ERIVO Harriet
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON Marriage Story
- SAOIRSE RONAN Little Women
- CHARLIZE THERON Bombshell
- RENÉE ZELLWEGER Judy (There is no reason Zellwegger won’t continue her winning streak here).
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- KATHY BATES Richard Jewell
- LAURA DERN Marriage Story (No reason to think Dern won’t continue her winning streak, although Scar Jo could pull it out for Academy fave Jojo Rabbit).
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON Jojo Rabbit
- FLORENCE PUGH Little Women
- MARGOT ROBBIE Bombshell
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ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
- HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
- I LOST MY BODY
- KLAUS Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román (The Annie Awards gave 7 awards to Netflix. Pixar no longer has a grasp on this category after last year’s Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse win).
- TOY STORY 4 Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera
- MISSING LINK Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- THE IRISHMAN Rodrigo Prieto
- JOKER Lawrence Sher
- THE LIGHTHOUSE Jarin Blaschke
- 1917 Roger Deakins (While its plot is similar to Saving Private Ryan, 1917 is all about the cinematography).
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Robert Richardson
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE IRISHMAN Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
- JOJO RABBIT Mayes C. Rubeo
- JOKER MarkBridges
- LITTLE WOMEN Jacqueline Durran (Have never seen a superhero film win Best Costume. And the Academy loves period pieces).
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Arianne Phillips
DIRECTING
- THE IRISHMAN Martin Scorsese
- JOKER Todd Phillips
- 1917 Sam Mendes (Sam Mendes clearly had a vision for 1917. And he managed to get it from film to screen).
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE Bong Joon Ho
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
- AMERICAN FACTORY Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
- THE CAVE Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjær
- THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan
- FOR SAMA Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
- HONEYLAND Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
- IN THE ABSENCE Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
- LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
- LIFE OVERTAKES ME John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
- ST. LOUIS SUPERMAN Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
- WALK RUN CHA-CHA Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
FILM EDITING
- FORD V FERRARI Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland (If 1917 had been nominated it could have won, but what editing was there right? It was all one take right? Spectacular, fast and true wins this year gold statue).
- THE IRISHMAN Thelma Schoonmaker
- JOJO RABBIT Tom Eagles
- JOKER Jeff Groth
- PARASITE Yang Jinmo
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
- CORPUS CHRISTI Poland
- HONEYLAND North Macedonia
- LES MISÉRABLES France
- PAIN AND GLORY Spain
- PARASITE South Korea (Parasite won’t win Best Picture, but Bong Joon Ho gets to make an acceptance speech here).
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
- BOMBSHELL Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
- JOKER Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou (The smart money goes on Bombshell which transformed Charlize Theron into a Megan Kelley lookalike, but Joker has been a dark horse all season… like the titular character).
- JUDY Jeremy Woodhead
- MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White
- 1917 Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
- JOKER Hildur Guðnadóttir (Smart money goes on 1917, but again Joker hasn’t won and there needs to be some diversity somewhere. It’s also a very dark, sumptuous score).
- LITTLE WOMEN Alexandre Desplat
- MARRIAGE STORY Randy Newman
- 1917 Thomas Newman
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER John Williams
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
- I CAN’T LET YOU THROW YOURSELF AWAY from Toy Story 4; Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
- (I’M GONNA) LOVE ME AGAIN from Rocketman; Music by Elton John; Lyric by Bernie Taupin (Elton gets to take a statue to his party).
- I’M STANDING WITH YOU from Breakthrough; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
- INTO THE UNKNOWN from Frozen II; Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
- STAND UP from Harriet; Music and Lyric by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
BEST PICTURE
- FORD V FERRARI Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, Producers
- THE IRISHMAN Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
- JOJO RABBIT Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi, Producers
- JOKER Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
- LITTLE WOMEN Amy Pascal, Producer
- MARRIAGE STORY Noah Baumbach and David Heyman, Producers
- 1917 Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, Producers (Hollywood loves war movies).
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, Producers
- PARASITE Kwak Sin Ae and Bong Joon Ho, Producers
PRODUCTION DESIGN
THE IRISHMAN Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves
JOJO RABBIT Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
1917 Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh (Barbara Ling swept us back to 1960’s Hollywood in style. She and Nancy Haigh win here).
PARASITE Design: Lee Ha Jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
- DCERA (DAUGHTER ) Daria Kashcheeva
- HAIR LOVE Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
- KITBULL Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
- MEMORABLE Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
- SISTER Siqi Song
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
- BROTHERHOOD Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
- NEFTA FOOTBALL CLUB Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
- THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW Marshall Curry (Saw this at AFI. It is dramatic, funny, surprising and touching. Congrats to the filmmakers).
- SARIA Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
- A SISTER Delphine Girard
SOUND EDITING
- FORD V FERRARI Donald Sylvester
- JOKER Alan Robert Murray
- 1917 Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Wylie Stateman
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER Matthew Wood and David Acord
SOUND MIXING
- AD ASTRA Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
- FORD V FERRARI Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
- JOKER Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
- 1917 Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
VISUAL EFFECTS
- AVENGERS: ENDGAME Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
- THE IRISHMAN Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
- THE LION KING Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman (Disney has 3 shots to win this category. Would love Endgame, but it already won at the box office).
- 1917 Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
- THE IRISHMAN Screenplay by Steven Zaillian
- JOJO RABBIT Screenplay by Taika Waititi (Won at WGA Awards. Will win here).
- JOKER Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
- LITTLE WOMEN Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig
- THE TWO POPES Written by Anthony McCarten
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
- KNIVES OUT Written by Rian Johnso
- MARRIAGE STORY Written by Noah Baumbach
- 1917 Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD Written by Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho (Won at the WGA Awards, will win here).
The 92nd Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, February 9, 2020, at the Dolby® Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center® in Hollywood, and will be televised live on ABC at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. “The Academy Awards Red Carpet Show” will air at 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT.
Contact Colin Costello at colin@reel360.com or follow him on Twitter at @colinthewriter1
