Hollywood loves a good showdown, and the 98th Academy Awards might deliver one of the most fascinating battles in recent Oscar history. This year’s race has evolved into a clash between prestige auteurs, blockbuster spectacle, and a few daring genre swings that have electrified the industry.
At the center of the storm are two films dominating the conversation: One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling drama, and Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s genre-blending supernatural epic steeped in blues music and American history. Together, they have shaped nearly every major category this season.
When the ceremony unfolds Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre with Conan O’Brien returning as host, the night could belong to one of those two films or surprise us entirely.
Below is our Geek prediction for every category at the 98th Academy Awards.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle after Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Prediction: One Battle After Another
The Best Picture race has been neck-and-neck all season between Anderson’s film and Coogler’s Sinners, which led the nominations with a historic 16 nods.
But industry momentum appears to favor One Battle After Another, a sweeping ensemble drama that has consistently performed well with guilds and critics groups. Betting markets and awards analysts widely predict it to take the top prize.
Best Director
Nominees:
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle after Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Anderson has been the steady frontrunner throughout the awards season and is widely expected to win his first directing Oscar.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Prediction: Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
This is one of the night’s tightest races. Early awards buzz favored Chalamet, but prediction markets now lean toward Jordan’s powerful performance.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Prediction: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Buckley has dominated many of the precursor awards and appears to be the clear favorite.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Prediction: Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Penn’s performance as a hardened veteran in Anderson’s film has earned consistent praise.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Prediction: Amy Madigan – Weapons
Madigan has surged late in the season thanks to critics’ awards and guild recognition.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Bugonia – Yorgos Lanthimos & Will Tracy
Blue Moon – Richard Linklater & Glen Powell
Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Prediction: Sinners
Coogler’s richly layered mythology and genre-blending storytelling give it the edge.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonça Filho
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Anderson’s screenplay is widely predicted to win as part of the film’s broader awards haul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji
One Battle after Another, Michael Bauman
Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
‘Nominees:
F1, Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle after Another, Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners, Michael P. Shawver
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Editing awards often mirror Best Picture winners, and this one seems poised to follow that trend.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle after Another
Sinners
Prediction: Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Prediction: Frankenstein
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Prediction: Frankenstein
Best Sound
Nominees:
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle after Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Prediction: F1
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
If an Avatar film is nominated here, history suggests the race is essentially over.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Göransson
Prediction: Sinners
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied To You” from Sinners
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Prediction: “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters
The track has dominated awards chatter and streaming charts alike.
Best International Feature
Nominees:
Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirāt
Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting through Rocks
Mr. Nobody against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Animated Short
Nominees:
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Prediction: Butterfly
Best Documentary Short
Nominees:
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Prediction: All the Empty Rooms
Best Live Action Short
Nominees:
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Prediction: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Best Casting
Nominees:
Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler
Prediction: Sinners
This is the first year for the Academy’s new Best Casting category, and Coogler’s ensemble film appears to be the likely inaugural winner.
Final Prediction: Who Wins the Night?
If the predictions hold, One Battle After Another may emerge as the night’s biggest overall winner, capturing Best Picture, Director, Editing, and Adapted Screenplay. Meanwhile, Sinners should claim several major awards, including Actor, Original Screenplay, and Score.
But if Oscar history has taught us anything, it is that surprises are always waiting in the envelope. And for movie fans, that unpredictability is half the fun.
The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood. The ceremony will air live on ABC, stream live on Hulu and be broadcast in more than 200 territories worldwide.
The Geek is a working screenwriter, director and screenwriting instructor.
REELated:
Sinners leads 98th Oscar nominations with 16
