With the 2026 Grammy Awards just days away, the race across music’s top categories is shaping up to be one of the tightest in years. Final-round voting closed earlier this month, and while several contests remain too close to call, a few clear narratives have emerged heading into Sunday’s telecast.
At the center of it all is Bad Bunny, who is widely predicted to score a major win with Debí Tirar Más Fotos. While the Latin superstar has rarely been a fixture in the Grammys’ top all-genre categories, shifts in the Recording Academy’s voting body, including an influx of Latin Grammy voters, may finally tip the scales. Industry insiders see him as the most likely Album of the Year winner, edging out formidable competition from Kendrick Lamar and Lady Gaga in what many are calling a true three-way toss-up.
In the song races, the surprise frontrunner is Golden from KPop Demon Hunters. Despite landing only a Song of the Year nomination and missing Record of the Year entirely, the track’s craftsmanship, cultural impact, and cross-generational appeal have made it a quiet favorite among voters. If it wins, it would mark one of the night’s most unconventional victories.
Meanwhile, Sabrina Carpenter is expected to be one of the evening’s biggest overall winners. Predictions favor her for Pop Solo Performance and Music Video, signaling a continued surge that has positioned her as one of pop’s most dominant forces heading into 2026. Carpenter’s momentum could translate into multiple trophies, even if she falls short in Album of the Year.
In Best New Artist, Olivia Dean is widely seen as the artist to beat. While she holds only a single nomination, her late-breaking album success and sold-out tour have dramatically boosted her visibility during the final voting window. Voters often consider long-term career trajectory in this category, and Dean appears to have that advantage.
Other categories point toward strong nights for Kendrick Lamar in rap, Lady Gaga in pop vocal albums, Karol G in Latin pop, and Leon Thomas in R&B. In visual media, Wicked and KPop Demon Hunters are expected to rack up wins across score, compilation, and song categories.
As always, Grammy outcomes remain fluid until envelopes are opened, but heading into Sunday’s broadcast, the smart money is on Bad Bunny’s breakthrough, Carpenter’s pop coronation, and “Golden” shining in one of the ceremony’s most unpredictable races.
The 2026 Grammy Awards air live Sunday, Feb. 1, on CBS and stream on Paramount+, with Trevor Noah returning as host. Below are our final GRAMMY Predictions.
Pop: Sabrina Carpenter vs. Lady Gaga (Again)
Pop Solo Performance is widely expected to go to Sabrina Carpenter for Manchild, cementing her status as one of the Grammys’ most reliable breakout success stories of the year. The only real threat? Lady Gaga’s Disease, which continues to gain late-stage momentum.
That rivalry flips in Pop Vocal Album, where Gaga’s Mayhem is the frontrunner. The album’s critical reception and sheer scope give her the edge, though Carpenter’s Man’s Best Friend could surprise if voters decide it’s her night across the board.
Traditional Pop: Legacy Still Rules
In the Traditional Pop Vocal Album, legacy and craftsmanship appear to be winning out. Elton John and Brandi Carlile’s Who Believes in Angels? is the clear favorite, with Laufey’s A Matter of Time positioned as the younger, jazz-leaning alternative if voters skew modern.
Duo and Group: Pop Meets Culture
Pop Duo/Group Performance is expected to go to Rosé & Bruno Mars for APT., a sleek, global-friendly hit. But keep an eye on Golden from KPop Demon Hunters, which continues to pop up across categories and could pull off an upset if cultural impact outweighs radio dominance.
Visual Media: A Breakout Year for Soundtracks
If there’s one area where consensus is forming, it’s visual media.
Golden from KPop Demon Hunters is the favorite for Visual Media Song, while Sinners is expected to dominate Visual Media Score. Meanwhile, Wicked looks poised to take Visual Media Compilation, unless KPop Demon Hunters pulls another surprise.
The takeaway: soundtrack-driven storytelling is having a serious Grammy moment.
Musical Theater and Music Film: Prestige Wins
In the Musical Theater Album, Maybe Happy Ending is the frontrunner, reflecting the Academy’s growing appreciation for contemporary stage productions. For Music Film, Music by John Williams is expected to win, powered by reverence alone, though Raye: Live at the Royal Albert Hall could appeal to voters craving something current.
Music Video: Sabrina’s Visual Era
Sabrina Carpenter is also predicted to take Music Video for Manchild, reinforcing her status as one of the year’s most complete pop packages. Doechii’s Anxiety remains the main spoiler, especially with voters increasingly rewarding boundary-pushing visuals.
Comedy: Jamie Foxx’s Comeback Moment
Comedy Album is expected to go to Jamie Foxx for What Had Happened Was, marking a strong return following his health scare. Ali Wong’s Single Lady remains a credible alternative if voters favor sharp cultural commentary over comeback narratives.
Genre Albums: Familiar Names, Clear Favorites
Across genre albums, the expected winners read like a snapshot of the current music ecosystem:
- Latin Pop Album: Karol G — Tropicoqueta
- Country Album: Kelsea Ballerini — Patterns
- Rap Album: Kendrick Lamar — GNX
- Progressive R&B Album: FLO — Access All Areas
- R&B Album: Leon Thomas — MUTT
- Alternative Album: Hayley Williams — Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party
- Rock Album: Deftones — Private Music
Each category has a viable spoiler, but these picks reflect strong alignment between critics, culture, and Grammy voters.
Craft Spotlight: Album Cover as Art
Best Album Cover is shaping up as a two-horse race between Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos and Tyler, The Creator’s Chromakopia. The edge currently goes to Bad Bunny, whose visual identity has become inseparable from his music.
REELated:
Kendrick Lamar leads GRAMMY nominations
