Los Angeles may be on the verge of a political upset. City Councilmember Nithya Raman surged ahead of incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the latest vote count Wednesday, opening up a lead in a race that had been virtually tied for much of Election Night.
As of the latest count, Raman had 377,458 votes, or 51.12%, compared with Bass’ 360,864 votes, or 48.88%, with roughly 62.7% of the expected vote reported. The race has not yet been called.
The shift is significant because Bass led the earliest returns before Raman began gaining ground as later ballots were counted.
That pattern is familiar.
Raman also benefited from later-counted mail ballots during the June primary, when she moved from third place into the runoff against Bass after initially trailing reality-TV personality Spencer Pratt.
Now, the same kind of late-ballot movement is reshaping the general election.
And if the trend holds, it would amount to one of the biggest political shake-ups Los Angeles has seen in years.
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Bass, 73, entered the race as the incumbent and one of the most established figures in California Democratic politics, backed by much of the city’s labor and political establishment.
Raman, 45, ran as the candidate of change, criticizing Bass over homelessness, city services, housing and the handling of the 2025 Palisades fire. She also pledged to replace LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell and argued that Los Angeles needed a more aggressive approach to reducing street homelessness.
The contest increasingly became a generational and ideological fight over what kind of city Los Angeles wants to be heading into the 2028 Olympics.
Bass argued that her administration had made progress and deserved more time.
Raman argued that progress had been too slow.
The late ballots are changing the race
The most important story Wednesday was not simply that Raman had taken the lead.
It was how.
Bass led the first wave of results Tuesday night, but Raman steadily closed the gap as additional ballots were processed.
At 1:44 a.m., Raman moved ahead with 338,740 votes to Bass’ 334,762.
By 3:11 a.m., the gap had grown to more than 16,000 votes.
California’s mail-heavy voting system means substantial numbers of ballots can continue arriving and being counted after Election Day, so the final result may still take time.
That is why major news organizations have not yet projected a winner.
But Raman’s movement is exactly what her campaign hoped to see.
Late-counted ballots have historically included more younger and progressive voters, constituencies that form an important part of Raman’s base.
A stunning reversal
The political context makes Raman’s rise all the more striking.
Bass won the mayor’s office in 2022 and entered her first term with national stature, years of experience in Sacramento and Washington, and deep relationships throughout the Democratic establishment.
But her political standing weakened following the Palisades fire and persistent voter frustration over homelessness, affordability and basic city services.
In the June primary, Bass won just 34.3% of the vote – an unusually weak showing for an incumbent mayor – while Raman finished second with 29%.
By October, the race was dead even.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll had both candidates at 40% among likely voters, with nearly one-fifth still undecided.
Election Night proved the polling wasn’t kidding.
What a Raman victory would mean
If Raman ultimately wins, the result would represent a major shift in Los Angeles politics.
She would become the first South Asian woman elected mayor of Los Angeles and one of the most prominent progressive municipal leaders in the country.
Her victory would also strengthen the influence of the city’s newer progressive political organizations, including groups aligned with housing reform, transit advocacy and democratic socialist politics.
It would also mean voters rejected an incumbent backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, organized labor and much of the city’s traditional political establishment.
But the race is not over.
Thousands of ballots remain outstanding, and the final margin could still shift.
For now, though, the political reality is clear:
Karen Bass started Election Night ahead.
Nithya Raman woke up in front.
And Los Angeles is watching to see whether that lead turns into history.
