The Emmys have spent decades treating genre television like the weird cousin allowed into the party only when the visual effects categories roll around.
Not this year.
When the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards are handed out September 14, some of television’s biggest races will include science fiction, horror, superheroes, fantasy and a hospital drama that seems determined to make viewers afraid of emergency rooms forever.
Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay enters the night with 19 nominations and enough momentum to potentially upset longtime comedy favorites. Vince Gilligan’s sci-fi drama Pluribus has 18 nominations. Marvel’s Wonder Man landed Yahya Abdul-Mateen II in the comedy actor race, while HBO’s A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms earned nine nominations of its own.
And then there’s The Pitt, which apparently looked at its 13 nominations last year and decided that simply wasn’t enough.
Season two leads all programs with 25 nominations.
So, with Emmy night approaching, here’s where the major races appear to be headed — along with the shows and performances we’d most like to see holding statues when the night is over.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Will win: Widow’s Bay
Should win: Shrinking
This may ultimately come down to Hacks versus Widow’s Bay.
Hacks enters its final season with a comedy-leading 24 nominations and an established Emmy pedigree. But Apple’s Widow’s Bay feels like the newcomer arriving at precisely the right moment, collecting 19 nominations and becoming one of the year’s breakout shows.
Still, Shrinking deserves some love.
Apple’s melancholy comedy has somehow gone 0-for-18 at the Emmys, despite delivering one of television’s best ensembles. Season three pushed its characters into increasingly complicated emotional territory while somehow remaining very funny.
Maybe this is finally the year the Academy notices.
Lead Actor in a Comedy
Will win: Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Should win: Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay
Sometimes the easy answer is the right one.
Matthew Rhys plays the small-town mayor at the center of Widow’s Bay, balancing comedy and horror without allowing the performance to collapse entirely into either.
The category is loaded with veterans – Steve Carell, Jason Segel and Martin Short – along with Yahya Abdul-Mateen II representing Marvel’s Wonder Man.
But Rhys may have the combination voters love most: an acclaimed performance, a heavily nominated show, and an actor already respected throughout the industry.
Lead Actress in a Comedy
Will win: Jean Smart, Hacks
Should win: Elle Fanning, Margo’s Got Money Troubles
Jean Smart winning an Emmy has become nearly as predictable as someone thanking HBO.
Another victory would give Smart an extraordinary distinction: winning for every season of Hacks while tying the record for most acting Emmys.
But Elle Fanning has delivered one of the year’s most difficult tonal performances in Margo’s Got Money Troubles, navigating comedy, drama and emotional chaos without making any of it feel forced.
Smart may take the trophy.
Fanning may have delivered the performance we remember.
Outstanding Drama Series
Will win: The Pitt
Should win: Pluribus
This is where things get interesting for genre fans.
The Pitt remains the monster in the room. After winning for its first season, the medical drama returned with 25 nominations, the most of any program this year.
But if there’s a show capable of knocking it sideways, it may be Pluribus.
Vince Gilligan’s strange mixture of science fiction, social satire, black comedy and existential nightmare centers on Rhea Seehorn as one of the few people left with genuine free will.
Try putting that on a billboard.
It may not beat The Pitt.
But television is more interesting because somebody made it.
Lead Actor in a Drama
Will win: Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Should win: Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Noah Wyle remains the emotional center of The Pitt, even as Dr. Robby became far more difficult and self-destructive during season two.
That complication may actually strengthen Wyle’s case.
The performance works because viewers understand precisely how capable Robby can be — which makes watching him unravel considerably more painful.
He faces formidable competition from Sterling K. Brown, Mark Ruffalo, Gary Oldman and Rufus Sewell.
But Wyle looks positioned for another trip to the stage.
Lead Actress in a Drama
Will win: Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Should win: Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus
Can we please finally give Rhea Seehorn an Emmy?
For large portions of Pluribus, Seehorn essentially carries the series alone, navigating Gilligan’s bizarre world while grounding its enormous ideas in one deeply human performance.
She faces Keri Russell in The Diplomat and Zendaya, who already owns multiple Emmys for Euphoria.
But after years of watching Seehorn somehow leave Better Call Saul ceremonies empty-handed, this feels like the opportunity to correct an overdue piece of Emmy history.
No pressure, Television Academy.
Okay, maybe a little pressure.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Will win: Beef
Should win: DTF St. Louis
Netflix’s Beef enters with a category-leading 16 nominations, while HBO’s DTF St. Louis follows with 13.
Beef also has the advantage of a previous installment that already won this category.
But DTF St. Louis may be the more fascinating piece of television.
Steven Conrad’s series manages to be a relationship comedy, murder mystery and bleak examination of male loneliness without comfortably belonging to any of those categories.
That difficulty defining it may actually be its biggest strength.
Lead Actor in a Limited Series
Will win: Oscar Isaac, Beef
Should win: Riz Ahmed, Bait
Oscar Isaac has the benefit of starring in the most nominated limited series in the field, which makes him an obvious frontrunner.
But Riz Ahmed did something particularly ambitious with Bait, a series he also created.
The role combines Hollywood satire with questions about identity, faith, and representation — and gives Ahmed something refreshingly different from the murderers and monsters populating much of the category.
Sometimes not killing anybody really is enough to stand out.
Lead Actress in a Limited Series
Will win: Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures
Should win: Carey Mulligan, Beef
Never underestimate an acting legend.
Sally Field could become the rare performer to win this category for a television movie rather than a limited series, something that hasn’t happened since Julianne Moore won for Game Change in 2012.
But Carey Mulligan’s work in Beef may be the more fascinating performance.
Her Lindsay can be brittle, entitled, cruel and spectacularly self-deluded, while Mulligan still finds the disappointment underneath all of it.
That isn’t easy.
Genre television finally gets invited inside
Whatever happens September 14, this year’s nominations tell a larger story.
Pluribus is competing seriously for Outstanding Drama. Widow’s Bay could win Comedy while playing with horror conventions. Wonder Man has a Marvel superhero sitting in an acting category. A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms has fantasy firmly in the conversation.
The wall separating “prestige television” from genre television keeps getting thinner.
And frankly, it’s about time.
Because great television doesn’t suddenly become less great when somebody walks through the door carrying a sword, wearing a cape, or discovering that most of humanity may no longer possess free will.
The Geek is a working screenwriter, director and screenwriting instructor.
