James Cameron’s return to Pandora was always going to be massive. The only real question surrounding Avatar: Fire and Ash was whether critics would finally cool on the franchise’s visual spectacle. Now that reviews are in, the answer appears to be yes, at least slightly.
Fire and Ash currently holds the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of the trilogy, landing around 70 percent. That puts it below Avatar at 81 percent and The Way of Water at 76 percent. For Cameron, whose résumé includes Titanic, Aliens, Terminator 2, and True Lies, it’s a rare dip. Outside of the long-forgotten Piranha II, this is his lowest-rated major release.
Critics largely agree on what works and what doesn’t. The visuals remain state-of-the-art, and the scale is undeniable. But there’s a growing sense of déjà vu. Several reviews point to familiar story beats and another massive third-act battle that feels too close to what audiences saw in The Way of Water. As one critic put it, even the spectacle can start to feel repetitive when the emotional and narrative risks stay the same.
Still, none of this is expected to matter at the box office.
Early projections suggest Fire and Ash is headed for a global opening north of $340 million, with the majority of ticket sales driven by IMAX and premium 3D screens. The Avatar films have never relied on explosive opening weekends. The first film opened modestly in 2009 before going on to gross nearly $3 billion worldwide. The Way of Water followed a similar path, eventually surpassing $2.3 billion.
Even if Fire and Ash finishes lower than its predecessors, that still likely means a $1.5 to $2 billion global run. By any realistic measure, that’s a win.
The irony is that Cameron appears to be the least surprised by the critical conversation. He has already said that future Avatar installments will depend on how this film performs. Yet history suggests that Pandora’s pull remains unmatched. Few franchises command this level of global attention, regardless of reviews.
Beyond Avatar, Cameron is also preparing a sharp left turn, co-directing a Billie Eilish concert film designed as a large-scale 3D experience. Given that Avatar remains one of the only franchises to truly justify theatrical 3D, the pivot makes a strange kind of sense.
At this point, Fire and Ash doesn’t need to convert skeptics. It only needs to satisfy the audience that keeps showing up. And based on early numbers, that audience is still very much there.
Avatar: Fire and Ash opens in theaters on December 19.
The Geek is a working screenwriter, director and screenwriting instructor.
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